Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 8)
Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart
Saturday 12 Sept, 14:30
Full time
2–1
chances 2.96 – 2.67 xG
✗ missed — we picked VFB; the HOF win we priced at 39%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 8 assessments
39 · 23 · 39HOF · draw · VFB
1–2
Likeliest VFB win · 8%
HOFFENHEIM 39%DRAW 23%VFB STUTTGART 39%
Expected goals: HOF 1.90 · VFB 1.91
Goals
Over 1.5 goals90%
Over 2.5 goals73%
Over 3.5 goals53%
Both teams score73%
Double chance
HOF or draw61%
Draw or VFB61%
HOF or VFBno draw78%
Draw no bet
HOFstake returned on a draw50%
VFB50%
Clean sheets
HOF clean sheet15%
VFB clean sheet15%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| HOF↓ VFB→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
2–1 · 7.6%
A HOF win. 3 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 8 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 20 meetings since 2014/15
HOF 69 drawn5 VFB
2025/26Hoffenheim3–3VfB Stuttgart2026-05-02
2025/26VfB Stuttgart0–0Hoffenheim2025-12-20
2024/25Hoffenheim1–1VfB Stuttgart2025-02-23
2024/25VfB Stuttgart1–1Hoffenheim2024-10-06
2023/24Hoffenheim0–3VfB Stuttgart2024-03-16
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.