Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV
Saturday 10 Oct, 13:30
63 · 20 · 17HOF · draw · HAM
2–1
Likeliest HOF win · 10%
HOFFENHEIM 63%DRAW 20%HAMBURGER SV 17%
Expected goals: HOF 2.29 · HAM 1.12
Goals
Over 1.5 goals86%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Over 3.5 goals44%
Both teams score61%
Double chance
HOF or draw84%
Draw or HAM37%
HOF or HAMno draw80%
Draw no bet
HOFstake returned on a draw79%
HAM21%
Clean sheets
HOF clean sheet33%
HAM clean sheet10%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| HOF↓ HAM→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are HOF goals, columns HAM. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 10 meetings since 2014/15
HOF 52 drawn3 HAM
2025/26Hamburger SV1–2Hoffenheim2026-04-25
2025/26Hoffenheim4–1Hamburger SV2025-12-13
2017/18Hoffenheim2–0Hamburger SV2018-04-14
2017/18Hamburger SV3–0Hoffenheim2017-11-26
2016/17Hamburger SV2–1Hoffenheim2017-04-08
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.