Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 3)
Hoffenheim vs Dortmund
Saturday 5 Sept, 14:30
Full time
2–3
chances 2.17 – 2.02 xG
✓ called — we picked BVB; the BVB win we priced at 45%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 3 assessments
32 · 24 · 45HOF · draw · BVB
1–2
Likeliest BVB win · 9%
HOFFENHEIM 32%DRAW 24%DORTMUND 45%
Expected goals: HOF 1.51 · BVB 1.82
Goals
Over 1.5 goals85%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Over 3.5 goals43%
Both teams score66%
Double chance
HOF or draw55%
Draw or BVB68%
HOF or BVBno draw76%
Draw no bet
HOFstake returned on a draw42%
BVB59%
Clean sheets
HOF clean sheet16%
BVB clean sheet22%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| HOF↓ BVB→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
2–3 · 4.1%
A BVB win. 5 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 4 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 24 meetings since 2014/15
HOF 57 drawn12 BVB
2025/26Hoffenheim2–1Dortmund2026-04-18
2025/26Dortmund2–0Hoffenheim2025-12-07
2024/25Hoffenheim2–3Dortmund2025-04-26
2024/25Dortmund1–1Hoffenheim2024-12-15
2023/24Dortmund2–3Hoffenheim2024-02-25
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.