Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Hoffenheim vs Leverkusen
Sunday 25 Oct, 14:30
31 · 23 · 47HOF · draw · B04
1–2
Likeliest B04 win · 9%
HOFFENHEIM 31%DRAW 23%LEVERKUSEN 47%
Expected goals: HOF 1.60 · B04 2.00
Goals
Over 1.5 goals88%
Over 2.5 goals70%
Over 3.5 goals49%
Both teams score70%
Double chance
HOF or draw53%
Draw or B0469%
HOF or B04no draw77%
Draw no bet
HOFstake returned on a draw40%
B0460%
Clean sheets
HOF clean sheet14%
B04 clean sheet20%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| HOF↓ B04→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are HOF goals, columns B04. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 24 meetings since 2014/15
HOF 85 drawn11 B04
2025/26Hoffenheim1–0Leverkusen2026-01-17
2025/26Leverkusen1–2Hoffenheim2025-08-23
2024/25Leverkusen3–1Hoffenheim2025-02-02
2024/25Hoffenheim1–4Leverkusen2024-09-14
2023/24Leverkusen2–1Hoffenheim2024-03-30
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.