Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart
Saturday 17 Oct, 13:30
24 · 23 · 54HAM · draw · VFB
1–2
Likeliest VFB win · 10%
HAMBURGER SV 24%DRAW 23%VFB STUTTGART 54%
Expected goals: HAM 1.33 · VFB 2.06
Goals
Over 1.5 goals86%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Over 3.5 goals44%
Both teams score65%
Double chance
HAM or draw46%
Draw or VFB76%
HAM or VFBno draw77%
Draw no bet
HAMstake returned on a draw31%
VFB69%
Clean sheets
HAM clean sheet13%
VFB clean sheet27%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| HAM↓ VFB→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are HAM goals, columns VFB. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 8 meetings since 2014/15
HAM 31 drawn4 VFB
2025/26VfB Stuttgart4–0Hamburger SV2026-04-12
2025/26Hamburger SV2–1VfB Stuttgart2025-11-30
2017/18VfB Stuttgart1–1Hamburger SV2018-03-31
2017/18Hamburger SV3–1VfB Stuttgart2017-11-04
2015/16VfB Stuttgart2–1Hamburger SV2016-01-30
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.