Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 5)
Hamburger SV vs Mainz 05
Sunday 6 Sept, 14:30
Full time
0–5
chances 0.26 – 3.28 xG
✓ called — we picked MAI; the MAI win we priced at 41%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 5 assessments
33 · 26 · 41HAM · draw · MAI
1–2
Likeliest MAI win · 9%
HAMBURGER SV 33%DRAW 26%MAINZ 05 41%
Expected goals: HAM 1.41 · MAI 1.58
Goals
Over 1.5 goals81%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Over 3.5 goals35%
Both teams score61%
Double chance
HAM or draw59%
Draw or MAI67%
HAM or MAIno draw74%
Draw no bet
HAMstake returned on a draw45%
MAI55%
Clean sheets
HAM clean sheet21%
MAI clean sheet25%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| HAM↓ MAI→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
0–5 · 0.4%
A MAI win. 5 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly less than 1 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 10 meetings since 2014/15
HAM 34 drawn3 MAI
2025/26Mainz 051–1Hamburger SV2026-02-20
2025/26Hamburger SV4–0Mainz 052025-10-05
2017/18Hamburger SV0–0Mainz 052018-03-03
2017/18Mainz 053–2Hamburger SV2017-10-14
2016/17Hamburger SV0–0Mainz 052017-05-07
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.