Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 8)
Hamburger SV vs Köln
Saturday 19 Sept, 13:30
Full time
2–1
chances 2.08 – 2.16 xG
✗ missed — we picked KOE; the HAM win we priced at 35%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 8 assessments
35 · 26 · 39HAM · draw · KOE
1–2
Likeliest KOE win · 9%
HAMBURGER SV 35%DRAW 26%KÖLN 39%
Expected goals: HAM 1.49 · KOE 1.58
Goals
Over 1.5 goals82%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Over 3.5 goals37%
Both teams score62%
Double chance
HAM or draw61%
Draw or KOE65%
HAM or KOEno draw74%
Draw no bet
HAMstake returned on a draw48%
KOE53%
Clean sheets
HAM clean sheet21%
KOE clean sheet23%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| HAM↓ KOE→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
2–1 · 8.2%
A HAM win. 3 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 8 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 10 meetings since 2014/15
HAM 23 drawn5 KOE
2025/26Hamburger SV1–1Köln2026-03-14
2025/26Köln4–1Hamburger SV2025-11-02
2017/18Hamburger SV0–2Köln2018-01-20
2017/18Köln1–3Hamburger SV2017-08-25
2016/17Hamburger SV2–1Köln2017-04-01
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.