Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 2)
Freiburg vs Werder Bremen
Sunday 30 Aug, 13:30
Full time
4–1
chances 2.39 – 0.95 xG
✓ called — we picked FRE; the FRE win we priced at 51%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 2 assessments
52 · 25 · 23FRE · draw · WER
2–1
Likeliest FRE win · 10%
FREIBURG 52%DRAW 25%WERDER BREMEN 23%
Expected goals: FRE 1.73 · WER 1.09
Goals
Over 1.5 goals78%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Over 3.5 goals31%
Both teams score55%
Double chance
FRE or draw77%
Draw or WER49%
FRE or WERno draw75%
Draw no bet
FREstake returned on a draw69%
WER31%
Clean sheets
FRE clean sheet34%
WER clean sheet18%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| FRE↓ WER→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
4–1 · 2.4%
A FRE win. 5 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 2 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 20 meetings since 2014/15
FRE 96 drawn5 WER
2025/26Freiburg1–0Werder Bremen2026-02-07
2025/26Werder Bremen0–3Freiburg2025-09-20
2024/25Freiburg5–0Werder Bremen2025-02-21
2024/25Werder Bremen0–1Freiburg2024-10-05
2023/24Werder Bremen3–1Freiburg2024-01-27
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.