Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Freiburg vs Schalke 04
Saturday 10 Oct, 13:30
58 · 23 · 19FRE · draw · SCH
2–1
Likeliest FRE win · 10%
FREIBURG 58%DRAW 23%SCHALKE 04 19%
Expected goals: FRE 2.01 · SCH 1.06
Goals
Over 1.5 goals82%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Over 3.5 goals37%
Both teams score57%
Double chance
FRE or draw81%
Draw or SCH42%
FRE or SCHno draw77%
Draw no bet
FREstake returned on a draw76%
SCH24%
Clean sheets
FRE clean sheet35%
SCH clean sheet14%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| FRE↓ SCH→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are FRE goals, columns SCH. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 14 meetings since 2014/15
FRE 84 drawn2 SCH
2022/23Freiburg4–0Schalke 042023-04-23
2022/23Schalke 040–2Freiburg2022-10-30
2020/21Freiburg4–0Schalke 042021-04-17
2020/21Schalke 040–2Freiburg2020-12-16
2019/20Freiburg4–0Schalke 042020-06-27
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.