Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 8)
Freiburg vs Gladbach
Saturday 12 Sept, 14:30
Full time
5–0
chances 2.15 – 0.27 xG
✓ called — we picked FRE; the FRE win we priced at 51%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 8 assessments
51 · 25 · 24FRE · draw · BMG
2–1
Likeliest FRE win · 10%
FREIBURG 51%DRAW 25%GLADBACH 24%
Expected goals: FRE 1.80 · BMG 1.18
Goals
Over 1.5 goals81%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Over 3.5 goals35%
Both teams score59%
Double chance
FRE or draw76%
Draw or BMG49%
FRE or BMGno draw75%
Draw no bet
FREstake returned on a draw68%
BMG32%
Clean sheets
FRE clean sheet31%
BMG clean sheet17%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| FRE↓ BMG→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
5–0 · 0.8%
A FRE win. 5 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 1 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 22 meetings since 2014/15
FRE 98 drawn5 BMG
2025/26Freiburg2–1Gladbach2026-02-22
2025/26Gladbach0–0Freiburg2025-10-05
2024/25Gladbach1–2Freiburg2025-04-12
2024/25Freiburg3–1Gladbach2024-11-30
2023/24Gladbach0–3Freiburg2024-03-30
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.