Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Freiburg vs Bayern
Sunday 25 Oct, 16:30
19 · 20 · 61FRE · draw · FCB
1–2
Likeliest FCB win · 9%
FREIBURG 19%DRAW 20%BAYERN 61%
Expected goals: FRE 1.28 · FCB 2.39
Goals
Over 1.5 goals89%
Over 2.5 goals71%
Over 3.5 goals50%
Both teams score66%
Double chance
FRE or draw39%
Draw or FCB81%
FRE or FCBno draw80%
Draw no bet
FREstake returned on a draw23%
FCB77%
Clean sheets
FRE clean sheet9%
FCB clean sheet28%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| FRE↓ FCB→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are FRE goals, columns FCB. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 22 meetings since 2014/15
FRE 14 drawn17 FCB
2025/26Freiburg2–3Bayern2026-04-04
2025/26Bayern6–2Freiburg2025-11-22
2024/25Freiburg1–2Bayern2025-01-25
2024/25Bayern2–0Freiburg2024-09-01
2023/24Freiburg2–2Bayern2024-03-01
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.