Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 9)
Köln vs Werder Bremen
Saturday 12 Sept, 17:30
Full time
1–1
chances 1.61 – 1.18 xG
✗ missed — we picked KOE; the draw we priced at 24%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 9 assessments
50 · 24 · 26KOE · draw · WER
2–1
Likeliest KOE win · 10%
KÖLN 50%DRAW 24%WERDER BREMEN 26%
Expected goals: KOE 1.86 · WER 1.29
Goals
Over 1.5 goals83%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Over 3.5 goals38%
Both teams score62%
Double chance
KOE or draw74%
Draw or WER50%
KOE or WERno draw76%
Draw no bet
KOEstake returned on a draw66%
WER34%
Clean sheets
KOE clean sheet28%
WER clean sheet16%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| KOE↓ WER→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
1–1 · 11.1%
A draw. 2 goals — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 11 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 18 meetings since 2014/15
KOE 59 drawn4 WER
2025/26Köln3–1Werder Bremen2026-04-12
2025/26Werder Bremen1–1Köln2025-11-29
2023/24Köln0–1Werder Bremen2024-02-16
2023/24Werder Bremen2–1Köln2023-09-23
2022/23Werder Bremen1–1Köln2023-05-20
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.