Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 3)
Köln vs Schalke 04
Saturday 24 Oct, 14:30
55 · 23 · 22KOE · draw · SCH
2–1
Likeliest KOE win · 10%
KÖLN 55%DRAW 23%SCHALKE 04 22%
Expected goals: KOE 1.99 · SCH 1.21
Goals
Over 1.5 goals84%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Over 3.5 goals40%
Both teams score61%
Double chance
KOE or draw78%
Draw or SCH45%
KOE or SCHno draw77%
Draw no bet
KOEstake returned on a draw71%
SCH29%
Clean sheets
KOE clean sheet30%
SCH clean sheet14%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| KOE↓ SCH→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are KOE goals, columns SCH. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 14 meetings since 2014/15
KOE 85 drawn1 SCH
2022/23Schalke 040–0Köln2023-01-29
2022/23Köln3–1Schalke 042022-08-07
2020/21Köln1–0Schalke 042021-05-22
2020/21Schalke 041–2Köln2021-01-20
2019/20Köln3–0Schalke 042020-02-29
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.