Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited
Köln vs Hoffenheim
Saturday 29 Aug, 13:30
Full time
3–2
chances 2.31 – 1.92 xG
✓ called — we picked KOE; the KOE win we priced at 40%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff
40 · 24 · 37KOE · draw · HOF
2–1
Likeliest KOE win · 8%
KÖLN 40%DRAW 24%HOFFENHEIM 37%
Expected goals: KOE 1.74 · HOF 1.67
Goals
Over 1.5 goals86%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Over 3.5 goals44%
Both teams score67%
Double chance
KOE or draw63%
Draw or HOF60%
KOE or HOFno draw76%
Draw no bet
KOEstake returned on a draw52%
HOF48%
Clean sheets
KOE clean sheet19%
HOF clean sheet18%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| KOE↓ HOF→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
3–2 · 4.0%
A KOE win. 5 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 4 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 20 meetings since 2014/15
KOE 46 drawn10 HOF
2025/26Köln2–2Hoffenheim2026-02-21
2025/26Hoffenheim0–1Köln2025-10-03
2023/24Hoffenheim1–1Köln2024-02-11
2023/24Köln1–3Hoffenheim2023-09-16
2022/23Hoffenheim1–3Köln2023-04-22
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.