Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Köln vs Gladbach
Saturday 10 Oct, 13:30
50 · 23 · 27KOE · draw · BMG
2–1
Likeliest KOE win · 9%
KÖLN 50%DRAW 23%GLADBACH 27%
Expected goals: KOE 1.99 · BMG 1.44
Goals
Over 1.5 goals86%
Over 2.5 goals67%
Over 3.5 goals45%
Both teams score67%
Double chance
KOE or draw73%
Draw or BMG50%
KOE or BMGno draw77%
Draw no bet
KOEstake returned on a draw65%
BMG35%
Clean sheets
KOE clean sheet24%
BMG clean sheet14%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| KOE↓ BMG→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are KOE goals, columns BMG. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 20 meetings since 2014/15
KOE 74 drawn9 BMG
2025/26Köln3–3Gladbach2026-03-21
2025/26Gladbach3–1Köln2025-11-08
2023/24Gladbach3–3Köln2024-03-09
2023/24Köln3–1Gladbach2023-10-22
2022/23Köln0–0Gladbach2023-04-02
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.