Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 4)
Elversberg vs Mainz 05
Friday 30 Oct, 19:30
39 · 21 · 40ELV · draw · MAI
1–2
Likeliest MAI win · 7%
ELVERSBERG 39%DRAW 21%MAINZ 05 40%
Expected goals: ELV 2.12 · MAI 2.14
Goals
Over 1.5 goals93%
Over 2.5 goals80%
Over 3.5 goals62%
Both teams score78%
Double chance
ELV or draw60%
Draw or MAI61%
ELV or MAIno draw79%
Draw no bet
ELVstake returned on a draw50%
MAI50%
Clean sheets
ELV clean sheet12%
MAI clean sheet12%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| ELV↓ MAI→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
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Darker green = likelier. Rows are ELV goals, columns MAI. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.