Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 7)
Elversberg vs Bayern
Sunday 13 Sept, 16:30
Full time
1–2
chances 1.03 – 3.06 xG
✓ called — we picked FCB; the FCB win we priced at 79%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 7 assessments
8 · 13 · 79ELV · draw · FCB
1–3
Likeliest FCB win · 8%
ELVERSBERG 8%DRAW 13%BAYERN 79%
Expected goals: ELV 1.00 · FCB 3.13
Goals
Over 1.5 goals92%
Over 2.5 goals78%
Over 3.5 goals59%
Both teams score61%
Double chance
ELV or draw21%
Draw or FCB92%
ELV or FCBno draw87%
Draw no bet
ELVstake returned on a draw10%
FCB91%
Clean sheets
ELV clean sheet4%
FCB clean sheet37%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| ELV↓ FCB→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
1–2 · 7.9%
A FCB win. 3 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 8 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Elversberg — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.