Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited
Elversberg vs Leverkusen
Saturday 29 Aug, 13:30
Full time
3–2
chances 1.40 – 2.62 xG
✗ missed — we picked B04; the ELV win we priced at 20%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff
20 · 21 · 59ELV · draw · B04
1–2
Likeliest B04 win · 10%
ELVERSBERG 20%DRAW 21%LEVERKUSEN 59%
Expected goals: ELV 1.22 · B04 2.19
Goals
Over 1.5 goals86%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Over 3.5 goals44%
Both teams score63%
Double chance
ELV or draw41%
Draw or B0480%
ELV or B04no draw79%
Draw no bet
ELVstake returned on a draw25%
B0475%
Clean sheets
ELV clean sheet11%
B04 clean sheet30%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| ELV↓ B04→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
3–2 · 2.4%
A ELV win. 5 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 2 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Elversberg — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.