Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Elversberg vs Augsburg
Saturday 17 Oct, 13:30
53 · 22 · 26ELV · draw · AUG
2–1
Likeliest ELV win · 9%
ELVERSBERG 53%DRAW 22%AUGSBURG 26%
Expected goals: ELV 2.22 · AUG 1.54
Goals
Over 1.5 goals90%
Over 2.5 goals73%
Over 3.5 goals52%
Both teams score71%
Double chance
ELV or draw74%
Draw or AUG48%
ELV or AUGno draw78%
Draw no bet
ELVstake returned on a draw67%
AUG33%
Clean sheets
ELV clean sheet21%
AUG clean sheet11%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| ELV↓ AUG→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
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Darker green = likelier. Rows are ELV goals, columns AUG. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.