Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 8)
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Freiburg
Saturday 19 Sept, 13:30
Full time
2–2
chances 2.08 – 2.93 xG
✗ missed — we picked EIN; the draw we priced at 25%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 8 assessments
46 · 25 · 29EIN · draw · FRE
2–1
Likeliest EIN win · 9%
EINTRACHT FRANKFURT 46%DRAW 25%FREIBURG 29%
Expected goals: EIN 1.79 · FRE 1.38
Goals
Over 1.5 goals83%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Over 3.5 goals39%
Both teams score63%
Double chance
EIN or draw71%
Draw or FRE54%
EIN or FREno draw75%
Draw no bet
EINstake returned on a draw62%
FRE38%
Clean sheets
EIN clean sheet25%
FRE clean sheet17%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| EIN↓ FRE→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
2–2 · 6.4%
A draw. 4 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 6 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 22 meetings since 2014/15
EIN 98 drawn5 FRE
2025/26Eintracht Frankfurt2–0Freiburg2026-03-01
2025/26Freiburg2–2Eintracht Frankfurt2025-10-19
2024/25Freiburg1–3Eintracht Frankfurt2025-05-17
2024/25Eintracht Frankfurt4–1Freiburg2025-01-14
2023/24Freiburg3–3Eintracht Frankfurt2024-02-18
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.