Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 4)
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Augsburg
Sunday 6 Sept, 16:30
Full time
1–4
chances 2.51 – 1.45 xG
✗ missed — we picked EIN; the AUG win we priced at 23%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 4 assessments
54 · 23 · 23EIN · draw · AUG
2–1
Likeliest EIN win · 10%
EINTRACHT FRANKFURT 54%DRAW 23%AUGSBURG 23%
Expected goals: EIN 2.05 · AUG 1.29
Goals
Over 1.5 goals85%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Over 3.5 goals43%
Both teams score64%
Double chance
EIN or draw77%
Draw or AUG46%
EIN or AUGno draw77%
Draw no bet
EINstake returned on a draw70%
AUG30%
Clean sheets
EIN clean sheet27%
AUG clean sheet13%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| EIN↓ AUG→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
1–4 · 0.9%
A AUG win. 5 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 1 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 24 meetings since 2014/15
EIN 810 drawn6 AUG
2025/26Augsburg1–1Eintracht Frankfurt2026-04-25
2025/26Eintracht Frankfurt1–0Augsburg2025-12-13
2024/25Augsburg0–0Eintracht Frankfurt2025-04-20
2024/25Eintracht Frankfurt2–2Augsburg2024-12-07
2023/24Eintracht Frankfurt3–1Augsburg2024-04-19
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.