Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 3)
Gladbach vs Paderborn
Saturday 31 Oct, 14:30
54 · 24 · 22BMG · draw · PAD
1–0
Likeliest BMG win · 10%
GLADBACH 54%DRAW 24%PADERBORN 22%
Expected goals: BMG 1.78 · PAD 1.06
Goals
Over 1.5 goals78%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Over 3.5 goals32%
Both teams score55%
Double chance
BMG or draw78%
Draw or PAD46%
BMG or PADno draw76%
Draw no bet
BMGstake returned on a draw71%
PAD29%
Clean sheets
BMG clean sheet35%
PAD clean sheet17%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| BMG↓ PAD→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
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| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are BMG goals, columns PAD. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 4 meetings since 2014/15
BMG 40 drawn0 PAD
2019/20Paderborn1–3Gladbach2020-06-20
2019/20Gladbach2–0Paderborn2019-12-18
2014/15Gladbach2–0Paderborn2015-03-01
2014/15Paderborn1–2Gladbach2014-09-27
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.