Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 8)
Gladbach vs Mainz 05
Saturday 19 Sept, 13:30
Full time
3–4
chances 3.09 – 3.47 xG
✓ called — we picked MAI; the MAI win we priced at 40%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 8 assessments
35 · 25 · 40BMG · draw · MAI
1–2
Likeliest MAI win · 9%
GLADBACH 35%DRAW 25%MAINZ 05 40%
Expected goals: BMG 1.53 · MAI 1.65
Goals
Over 1.5 goals84%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Over 3.5 goals39%
Both teams score64%
Double chance
BMG or draw60%
Draw or MAI65%
BMG or MAIno draw75%
Draw no bet
BMGstake returned on a draw47%
MAI53%
Clean sheets
BMG clean sheet19%
MAI clean sheet22%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| BMG↓ MAI→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
3–4 · 0.8%
A MAI win. 7 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 1 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 24 meetings since 2014/15
BMG 810 drawn6 MAI
2025/26Gladbach1–1Mainz 052026-04-19
2025/26Mainz 050–1Gladbach2025-12-05
2024/25Gladbach1–3Mainz 052025-03-07
2024/25Mainz 051–1Gladbach2024-10-25
2023/24Mainz 051–1Gladbach2024-03-02
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.