Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Gladbach vs Hoffenheim
Saturday 17 Oct, 13:30
38 · 24 · 38BMG · draw · HOF
1–2
Likeliest HOF win · 8%
GLADBACH 38%DRAW 24%HOFFENHEIM 38%
Expected goals: BMG 1.73 · HOF 1.74
Goals
Over 1.5 goals87%
Over 2.5 goals67%
Over 3.5 goals46%
Both teams score69%
Double chance
BMG or draw62%
Draw or HOF62%
BMG or HOFno draw76%
Draw no bet
BMGstake returned on a draw50%
HOF50%
Clean sheets
BMG clean sheet18%
HOF clean sheet18%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| BMG↓ HOF→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
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Darker green = likelier. Rows are BMG goals, columns HOF. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 24 meetings since 2014/15
BMG 118 drawn5 HOF
2025/26Gladbach4–0Hoffenheim2026-05-16
2025/26Hoffenheim5–1Gladbach2026-01-14
2024/25Gladbach4–4Hoffenheim2025-05-03
2024/25Hoffenheim1–2Gladbach2024-12-21
2023/24Hoffenheim4–3Gladbach2024-04-20
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.