Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 3)
Gladbach vs Elversberg
Saturday 5 Sept, 13:30
55 · 23 · 22BMG · draw · ELV
2–1
Likeliest BMG win · 10%
GLADBACH 55%DRAW 23%ELVERSBERG 22%
Expected goals: BMG 1.93 · ELV 1.16
Goals
Over 1.5 goals82%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Over 3.5 goals37%
Both teams score59%
Double chance
BMG or draw78%
Draw or ELV46%
BMG or ELVno draw77%
Draw no bet
BMGstake returned on a draw71%
ELV29%
Clean sheets
BMG clean sheet31%
ELV clean sheet14%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| BMG↓ ELV→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Darker green = likelier. Rows are BMG goals, columns ELV. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Elversberg — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.