Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Dortmund vs Werder Bremen
Saturday 10 Oct, 13:30
70 · 19 · 11BVB · draw · WER
2–0
Likeliest BVB win · 11%
DORTMUND 70%DRAW 19%WERDER BREMEN 11%
Expected goals: BVB 2.36 · WER 0.87
Goals
Over 1.5 goals84%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Over 3.5 goals40%
Both teams score53%
Double chance
BVB or draw89%
Draw or WER30%
BVB or WERno draw81%
Draw no bet
BVBstake returned on a draw86%
WER14%
Clean sheets
BVB clean sheet42%
WER clean sheet9%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| BVB↓ WER→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are BVB goals, columns WER. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 22 meetings since 2014/15
BVB 145 drawn3 WER
2025/26Werder Bremen0–2Dortmund2026-05-16
2025/26Dortmund3–0Werder Bremen2026-01-13
2024/25Dortmund2–2Werder Bremen2025-01-25
2024/25Werder Bremen0–0Dortmund2024-08-31
2023/24Werder Bremen1–2Dortmund2024-03-09
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.