Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 8)
Dortmund vs Paderborn
Saturday 12 Sept, 14:30
Full time
3–0
chances 3.15 – 0.31 xG
✓ called — we picked BVB; the BVB win we priced at 76%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 8 assessments
76 · 15 · 9BVB · draw · PAD
2–0
Likeliest BVB win · 10%
DORTMUND 76%DRAW 15%PADERBORN 9%
Expected goals: BVB 2.77 · PAD 0.89
Goals
Over 1.5 goals88%
Over 2.5 goals71%
Over 3.5 goals50%
Both teams score56%
Double chance
BVB or draw91%
Draw or PAD24%
BVB or PADno draw85%
Draw no bet
BVBstake returned on a draw90%
PAD11%
Clean sheets
BVB clean sheet41%
PAD clean sheet6%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| BVB↓ PAD→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
3–0 · 9.1%
A BVB win. 3 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 9 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Paderborn — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 4 meetings since 2014/15
BVB 22 drawn0 PAD
2019/20Paderborn1–6Dortmund2020-05-31
2019/20Dortmund3–3Paderborn2019-11-22
2014/15Dortmund3–0Paderborn2015-04-18
2014/15Paderborn2–2Dortmund2014-11-22
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.