Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited
Dortmund vs Hamburger SV
Saturday 29 Aug, 16:30
Full time
2–0
chances 1.31 – 1.11 xG
✓ called — we picked BVB; the BVB win we priced at 73%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff
73 · 17 · 10BVB · draw · HAM
2–0
Likeliest BVB win · 10%
DORTMUND 73%DRAW 17%HAMBURGER SV 10%
Expected goals: BVB 2.55 · HAM 0.89
Goals
Over 1.5 goals86%
Over 2.5 goals67%
Over 3.5 goals45%
Both teams score55%
Double chance
BVB or draw90%
Draw or HAM27%
BVB or HAMno draw83%
Draw no bet
BVBstake returned on a draw88%
HAM13%
Clean sheets
BVB clean sheet41%
HAM clean sheet8%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| BVB↓ HAM→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
2–0 · 10.5%
A BVB win. 2 goals — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 10 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 10 meetings since 2014/15
BVB 62 drawn2 HAM
2025/26Dortmund3–2Hamburger SV2026-03-21
2025/26Hamburger SV1–1Dortmund2025-11-08
2017/18Dortmund2–0Hamburger SV2018-02-10
2017/18Hamburger SV0–3Dortmund2017-09-20
2016/17Dortmund3–0Hamburger SV2017-04-04
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.