Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 6)
Bayern vs Union Berlin
Friday 18 Sept, 18:30
Full time
7–0
chances 4.13 – 0.47 xG
✓ called — we picked FCB; the FCB win we priced at 85%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 6 assessments
85 · 10 · 5FCB · draw · UNI
3–0
Likeliest FCB win · 10%
BAYERN 85%DRAW 10%UNION BERLIN 5%
Expected goals: FCB 3.42 · UNI 0.82
Goals
Over 1.5 goals93%
Over 2.5 goals80%
Over 3.5 goals61%
Both teams score54%
Double chance
FCB or draw95%
Draw or UNI15%
FCB or UNIno draw90%
Draw no bet
FCBstake returned on a draw95%
UNI6%
Clean sheets
FCB clean sheet44%
UNI clean sheet3%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| FCB↓ UNI→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are FCB goals, columns UNI. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 14 meetings since 2019/20
FCB 95 drawn0 UNI
2025/26Bayern4–0Union Berlin2026-03-21
2025/26Union Berlin2–2Bayern2025-11-08
2024/25Union Berlin1–1Bayern2025-03-15
2024/25Bayern3–0Union Berlin2024-11-02
2023/24Union Berlin1–5Bayern2024-04-20
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.