Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Bayern vs RB Leipzig
Saturday 17 Oct, 13:30
75 · 14 · 11FCB · draw · RBL
3–1
Likeliest FCB win · 8%
BAYERN 75%DRAW 14%RB LEIPZIG 11%
Expected goals: FCB 3.13 · RBL 1.23
Goals
Over 1.5 goals94%
Over 2.5 goals81%
Over 3.5 goals63%
Both teams score68%
Double chance
FCB or draw89%
Draw or RBL26%
FCB or RBLno draw86%
Draw no bet
FCBstake returned on a draw87%
RBL13%
Clean sheets
FCB clean sheet29%
RBL clean sheet4%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| FCB↓ RBL→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are FCB goals, columns RBL. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 20 meetings since 2016/17
FCB 117 drawn2 RBL
2025/26RB Leipzig1–5Bayern2026-01-17
2025/26Bayern6–0RB Leipzig2025-08-22
2024/25RB Leipzig3–3Bayern2025-05-03
2024/25Bayern5–1RB Leipzig2024-12-20
2023/24Bayern2–1RB Leipzig2024-02-24
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.