Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 2)
Bayern vs Dortmund
Saturday 31 Oct, 17:30
66 · 18 · 16FCB · draw · BVB
2–1
Likeliest FCB win · 9%
BAYERN 66%DRAW 18%DORTMUND 16%
Expected goals: FCB 2.58 · BVB 1.25
Goals
Over 1.5 goals90%
Over 2.5 goals74%
Over 3.5 goals53%
Both teams score66%
Double chance
FCB or draw84%
Draw or BVB34%
FCB or BVBno draw82%
Draw no bet
FCBstake returned on a draw80%
BVB20%
Clean sheets
FCB clean sheet29%
BVB clean sheet8%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| FCB↓ BVB→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are FCB goals, columns BVB. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 24 meetings since 2014/15
FCB 174 drawn3 BVB
2025/26Dortmund2–3Bayern2026-02-28
2025/26Bayern2–1Dortmund2025-10-18
2024/25Bayern2–2Dortmund2025-04-12
2024/25Dortmund1–1Bayern2024-11-30
2023/24Bayern0–2Dortmund2024-03-30
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.