Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 3)
Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart
Saturday 31 Oct, 14:30
57 · 20 · 23B04 · draw · VFB
2–1
Likeliest B04 win · 9%
LEVERKUSEN 57%DRAW 20%VFB STUTTGART 23%
Expected goals: B04 2.35 · VFB 1.46
Goals
Over 1.5 goals90%
Over 2.5 goals73%
Over 3.5 goals53%
Both teams score70%
Double chance
B04 or draw77%
Draw or VFB43%
B04 or VFBno draw80%
Draw no bet
B04stake returned on a draw72%
VFB28%
Clean sheets
B04 clean sheet23%
VFB clean sheet10%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| B04↓ VFB→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are B04 goals, columns VFB. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 20 meetings since 2014/15
B04 116 drawn3 VFB
2025/26VfB Stuttgart3–1Leverkusen2026-05-09
2025/26Leverkusen1–4VfB Stuttgart2026-01-10
2024/25VfB Stuttgart3–4Leverkusen2025-03-16
2024/25Leverkusen0–0VfB Stuttgart2024-11-01
2023/24Leverkusen2–2VfB Stuttgart2024-04-27
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.