Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 3)
Leverkusen vs Union Berlin
Saturday 5 Sept, 13:30
66 · 19 · 14B04 · draw · UNI
2–0
Likeliest B04 win · 10%
LEVERKUSEN 66%DRAW 19%UNION BERLIN 14%
Expected goals: B04 2.31 · UNI 1.00
Goals
Over 1.5 goals85%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Over 3.5 goals42%
Both teams score57%
Double chance
B04 or draw86%
Draw or UNI34%
B04 or UNIno draw81%
Draw no bet
B04stake returned on a draw82%
UNI18%
Clean sheets
B04 clean sheet37%
UNI clean sheet10%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| B04↓ UNI→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are B04 goals, columns UNI. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 14 meetings since 2019/20
B04 75 drawn2 UNI
2025/26Union Berlin1–0Leverkusen2026-02-21
2025/26Leverkusen2–0Union Berlin2025-10-04
2024/25Leverkusen0–0Union Berlin2025-04-12
2024/25Union Berlin1–2Leverkusen2024-11-30
2023/24Union Berlin0–1Leverkusen2024-04-06
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.