Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 5)
Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig
Sunday 20 Sept, 13:30
Full time
2–0
chances 2.55 – 0.93 xG
✓ called — we picked B04; the B04 win we priced at 54%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 5 assessments
54 · 22 · 24B04 · draw · RBL
2–1
Likeliest B04 win · 9%
LEVERKUSEN 54%DRAW 22%RB LEIPZIG 24%
Expected goals: B04 2.21 · RBL 1.44
Goals
Over 1.5 goals89%
Over 2.5 goals71%
Over 3.5 goals50%
Both teams score69%
Double chance
B04 or draw76%
Draw or RBL46%
B04 or RBLno draw78%
Draw no bet
B04stake returned on a draw69%
RBL31%
Clean sheets
B04 clean sheet24%
RBL clean sheet11%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| B04↓ RBL→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
2–0 · 6.4%
A B04 win. 2 goals — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 6 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 20 meetings since 2016/17
B04 75 drawn8 RBL
2025/26Leverkusen4–1RB Leipzig2026-05-02
2025/26RB Leipzig1–3Leverkusen2025-12-20
2024/25RB Leipzig2–2Leverkusen2025-01-25
2024/25Leverkusen2–3RB Leipzig2024-08-31
2023/24RB Leipzig2–3Leverkusen2024-01-20
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.