Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Leverkusen vs Freiburg
Saturday 17 Oct, 13:30
61 · 21 · 18B04 · draw · FRE
2–1
Likeliest B04 win · 10%
LEVERKUSEN 61%DRAW 21%FREIBURG 18%
Expected goals: B04 2.19 · FRE 1.11
Goals
Over 1.5 goals85%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Over 3.5 goals42%
Both teams score60%
Double chance
B04 or draw83%
Draw or FRE39%
B04 or FREno draw79%
Draw no bet
B04stake returned on a draw78%
FRE22%
Clean sheets
B04 clean sheet33%
FRE clean sheet11%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| B04↓ FRE→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are B04 goals, columns FRE. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 22 meetings since 2014/15
B04 108 drawn4 FRE
2025/26Freiburg3–3Leverkusen2026-03-07
2025/26Leverkusen2–0Freiburg2025-10-26
2024/25Freiburg2–2Leverkusen2025-05-04
2024/25Leverkusen5–1Freiburg2024-12-21
2023/24Freiburg2–3Leverkusen2024-03-17
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.