Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 3)
Augsburg vs Union Berlin
Saturday 24 Oct, 14:30
50 · 25 · 26AUG · draw · UNI
2–1
Likeliest AUG win · 10%
AUGSBURG 50%DRAW 25%UNION BERLIN 26%
Expected goals: AUG 1.78 · UNI 1.23
Goals
Over 1.5 goals81%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Over 3.5 goals36%
Both teams score60%
Double chance
AUG or draw74%
Draw or UNI51%
AUG or UNIno draw75%
Draw no bet
AUGstake returned on a draw66%
UNI34%
Clean sheets
AUG clean sheet29%
UNI clean sheet17%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| AUG↓ UNI→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are AUG goals, columns UNI. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 14 meetings since 2019/20
AUG 65 drawn3 UNI
2025/26Union Berlin4–0Augsburg2026-05-16
2025/26Augsburg1–1Union Berlin2026-01-15
2024/25Augsburg1–2Union Berlin2025-05-17
2024/25Union Berlin0–2Augsburg2025-01-15
2023/24Augsburg2–0Union Berlin2024-04-12
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.