Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 2)

Augsburg vs Schalke 04

Sunday 30 Aug, 15:30
Full time
3–0
chances 5.54 – 1.84 xG
✓ called — we picked AUG; the AUG win we priced at 52%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 2 assessments
52 · 24 · 24AUG · draw · SCH
2–1
Likeliest AUG win · 10%
AUGSBURG 52%DRAW 24%SCHALKE 04 24%

Expected goals: AUG 1.87 · SCH 1.20

Goals
Over 1.5 goals82%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Over 3.5 goals37%
Both teams score60%
Double chance
AUG or draw76%
Draw or SCH48%
AUG or SCHno draw76%
Draw no bet
AUGstake returned on a draw69%
SCH31%
Clean sheets
AUG clean sheet30%
SCH clean sheet16%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
AUG↓ SCH→012345
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3–0 · 5.1%
A AUG win. 3 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 5 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Schalke 04 — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 16 meetings since 2014/15
AUG 37 drawn6 SCH
2022/23Augsburg1–1Schalke 042023-03-18
2022/23Schalke 042–3Augsburg2022-10-02
2020/21Schalke 041–0Augsburg2021-04-11
2020/21Augsburg2–2Schalke 042020-12-13
2019/20Schalke 040–3Augsburg2020-05-24

Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.