Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 4)
Augsburg vs Freiburg
Saturday 31 Oct, 14:30
39 · 25 · 36AUG · draw · FRE
2–1
Likeliest AUG win · 9%
AUGSBURG 39%DRAW 25%FREIBURG 36%
Expected goals: AUG 1.62 · FRE 1.55
Goals
Over 1.5 goals83%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Over 3.5 goals39%
Both teams score64%
Double chance
AUG or draw64%
Draw or FRE61%
AUG or FREno draw75%
Draw no bet
AUGstake returned on a draw52%
FRE48%
Clean sheets
AUG clean sheet21%
FRE clean sheet20%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| AUG↓ FRE→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are AUG goals, columns FRE. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 22 meetings since 2014/15
AUG 47 drawn11 FRE
2025/26Augsburg2–2Freiburg2026-01-18
2025/26Freiburg1–3Augsburg2025-08-23
2024/25Augsburg0–0Freiburg2025-03-02
2024/25Freiburg3–1Augsburg2024-10-19
2023/24Augsburg2–1Freiburg2024-02-25
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.