Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Augsburg vs Bayern
Saturday 10 Oct, 13:30
13 · 16 · 71AUG · draw · FCB
1–2
Likeliest FCB win · 9%
AUGSBURG 13%DRAW 16%BAYERN 71%
Expected goals: AUG 1.20 · FCB 2.81
Goals
Over 1.5 goals91%
Over 2.5 goals76%
Over 3.5 goals57%
Both teams score66%
Double chance
AUG or draw30%
Draw or FCB87%
AUG or FCBno draw84%
Draw no bet
AUGstake returned on a draw16%
FCB84%
Clean sheets
AUG clean sheet6%
FCB clean sheet30%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| AUG↓ FCB→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are AUG goals, columns FCB. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 24 meetings since 2014/15
AUG 42 drawn18 FCB
2025/26Bayern1–2Augsburg2026-01-24
2025/26Augsburg2–3Bayern2025-08-30
2024/25Augsburg1–3Bayern2025-04-04
2024/25Bayern3–0Augsburg2024-11-22
2023/24Augsburg2–3Bayern2024-01-27
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.