Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 8)
Augsburg vs Leverkusen
Saturday 12 Sept, 14:30
Full time
2–2
chances 0.84 – 1.89 xG
✗ missed — we picked B04; the draw we priced at 23%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 8 assessments
26 · 23 · 51AUG · draw · B04
1–2
Likeliest B04 win · 9%
AUGSBURG 26%DRAW 23%LEVERKUSEN 51%
Expected goals: AUG 1.36 · B04 1.96
Goals
Over 1.5 goals85%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Over 3.5 goals42%
Both teams score65%
Double chance
AUG or draw49%
Draw or B0474%
AUG or B04no draw77%
Draw no bet
AUGstake returned on a draw34%
B0466%
Clean sheets
AUG clean sheet14%
B04 clean sheet26%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| AUG↓ B04→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
2–2 · 6.4%
A draw. 4 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 6 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 24 meetings since 2014/15
AUG 47 drawn13 B04
2025/26Leverkusen1–2Augsburg2026-04-18
2025/26Augsburg2–0Leverkusen2025-12-06
2024/25Leverkusen2–0Augsburg2025-04-26
2024/25Augsburg0–2Leverkusen2024-12-14
2023/24Leverkusen2–1Augsburg2024-05-18
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.