Saturday 29 Aug, 17:30 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Tottenham Hotspur
40Index36Attack47Defense
WLDWW
37%TOT WIN
2–1
Likeliest TOT win · 8%
Newcastle United
52Index59Attack44Defense
LWDWL
SPURS 37%DRAW 27%NEWCASTLE 36%
Over 2.5 goals
57%
Both teams score
61%
Expected goals
1.5 · 1.5
Why
- The model makes this 37% vs 36% — closer than the table suggests.
Head to head · 22 league meetings since 2014/15
TOT 93 drawn10 NEW
2025/26TOT1–2NEW2026-02-10
2025/26NEW2–2TOT2025-12-02
2024/25TOT1–2NEW2025-01-04
2024/25NEW2–1TOT2024-09-01
2023/24NEW4–0TOT2024-04-13
Spurs — projected scorers
Newcastle — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals81%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Over 3.5 goals35%
Both teams score61%
Double chance
TOT or draw64%
Draw or NEW63%
TOT or NEWno draw73%
Draw no bet
TOTstake returned on a draw51%
NEW49%
Clean sheets
TOT clean sheet23%
NEW clean sheet22%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| TOT↓ NEW→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are TOT goals, columns NEW. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price held steady since first assessment (2026-08-19) — reassessed after every played match, frozen at kickoff.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public at /model.