Sunday 24 May, 16:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited

Tottenham Hotspur

44Index42Attack48Defense
WLDWW
41%TOT WIN
1–1
Most likely score

Everton

44Index37Attack53Defense
LLDDL
SPURS 41%DRAW 28%EVERTON 31%
FT 1–0 — the model called it (RPS 0.219). Graded 2026-08-15 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
51%
Both teams score
56%
Expected goals λ
1.5 · 1.2
Spurs — projected scorers
Richarlison36%15% ast—
Mathys Tel9%30% ast—
Pedro Porro9%18% ast—
Randal Kolo Muani9%15% ast—
Xavi Simons9%6% ast—
Conor Gallagher6%7% ast—
Everton — projected scorers
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall14%30% ast—
Beto27%4% ast—
Iliman Ndiaye15%12% ast—
Thierno Barry22%2% ast—
James Tarkowski7%8% ast—
James Garner1%13% ast—

These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.