Saturday 29 Aug, 12:30 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Liverpool
65Index71Attack56Defense
DLDLW
59%LIV WIN
2–1
Likeliest LIV win · 10%
Nottingham Forest
39Index40Attack41Defense
DLDWW
LIVERPOOL 59%DRAW 23%FOREST 19%
Over 2.5 goals
64%
Both teams score
62%
Expected goals
2.1 · 1.1
Why
- Liverpool attack index 71 meets Nottingham Forest defense index 41 — one of the biggest mismatches of the week.
- The model makes this 59% vs 19% — a clear favorite on the numbers.
Head to head · 8 league meetings since 2022/23
LIV 41 drawn3 NOT
2025/26NOT0–1LIV2026-02-22
2025/26LIV0–3NOT2025-11-22
2024/25NOT1–1LIV2025-01-14
2024/25LIV0–1NOT2024-09-14
2023/24NOT0–1LIV2024-03-02
Liverpool — projected scorers
Forest — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals85%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Over 3.5 goals42%
Both teams score62%
Double chance
LIV or draw81%
Draw or NOT41%
LIV or NOTno draw78%
Draw no bet
LIVstake returned on a draw76%
NOT24%
Clean sheets
LIV clean sheet32%
NOT clean sheet12%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| LIV↓ NOT→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are LIV goals, columns NOT. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price held steady since first assessment (2026-08-19) — reassessed after every played match, frozen at kickoff.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public at /model.