Monday 17 Aug, 20:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
1–1✗ missed — the draw we priced at 25% · RPS 0.142
The claim — frozen at kickoff

Deportivo

IndexAttackDefense
41% WIN
1–1
Most likely score

Elche

IndexAttackDefense
DEPORTIVO 41%DRAW 25%ELCHE 34%
FT 1–1 — the model missed (RPS 0.142). Graded 2026-08-18 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
50%
Both teams score
54%
Expected goals λ
1.4 · 1.3
Deportivo — projected scorers

No qualified projections yet.

Elche — projected scorers

No qualified projections yet.

These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.

What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Deportivo and Elche — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public at /model.