Sunday 24 May, 16:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited

Crystal Palace

52Index56Attack47Defense
LDLDL
51%ARS WIN
1–1
Most likely score

Arsenal

95Index78Attack99Defense
WWWWW
CRYSTAL PALACE 22%DRAW 26%ARSENAL 51%
FT 1–2 — the model called it (RPS 0.145). Graded 2026-08-15 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
52%
Both teams score
54%
Expected goals λ
1.1 · 1.7
Crystal Palace — projected scorers
Ismaila Sarr27%3% ast—
Adam Wharton3%26% ast—
Jean-Philippe Mateta20%2% astGOAL
Daniel Muñoz6%14% ast—
Yeremi Pino1%17% astAST
Daichi Kamada2%13% ast—
Arsenal — projected scorers
Viktor Gyokeres28%7% ast—
Kai Havertz26%2% astAST
Leandro Trossard9%17% ast—
Bukayo Saka8%17% ast—
Eberechi Eze16%7% ast—
Declan Rice1%19% ast—

These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.