Saturday 29 Aug, 15:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Coventry City
IndexAttackDefense
42%COV WIN
2–1
Likeliest COV win · 9%
Hull City
IndexAttackDefense
LLLDW
COVENTRY 42%DRAW 29%HULL 29%
Over 2.5 goals
50%
Both teams score
55%
Expected goals
1.5 · 1.2
Why
- Coventry City has no Premier League rating yet — the model prices them off its promoted-club prior, not off their own results.
- The model makes this 42% vs 29% — closer than the table suggests.
Coventry — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
Hull — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals76%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Over 3.5 goals28%
Both teams score55%
Double chance
COV or draw71%
Draw or HUL58%
COV or HULno draw71%
Draw no bet
COVstake returned on a draw59%
HUL41%
Clean sheets
COV clean sheet30%
HUL clean sheet23%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| COV↓ HUL→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are COV goals, columns HUL. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price held steady since first assessment (2026-08-19) — reassessed after every played match, frozen at kickoff.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Coventry and Hull — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public at /model.