Sunday 24 May, 16:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited

Brighton & Hove Albion

58Index55Attack60Defense
LLWLW
41%BHA WIN
1–1
Most likely score

Manchester United

66Index68Attack62Defense
WWDWW
BRIGHTON 41%DRAW 26%MAN UNITED 33%
FT 0–3 — the model missed (RPS 0.313). Graded 2026-08-15 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
59%
Both teams score
62%
Expected goals λ
1.6 · 1.4
Brighton — projected scorers
Jack Hinshelwood30%16% ast—
Danny Welbeck27%14% ast—
Yankuba Minteh15%20% ast—
Maxim De Cuyper1%24% ast—
Kaoru Mitoma20%7% ast—
Pascal Groß4%19% ast—
Man United — projected scorers
Bruno Fernandes19%52% astGOAL
Bryan Mbeumo22%9% astGOAL
Matheus Cunha13%10% ast—
Benjamin Sesko18%1% ast—
Casemiro12%6% ast—
Amad Diallo Traore8%9% astAST

These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.