Saturday 29 Aug, 15:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Bournemouth
60Index66Attack52Defense
DDWWD
54%BOU WIN
2–1
Likeliest BOU win · 10%
Everton
40Index35Attack49Defense
LLDDL
BOURNEMOUTH 54%DRAW 25%EVERTON 21%
Over 2.5 goals
59%
Both teams score
59%
Expected goals
1.9 · 1.1
Why
- Bournemouth attack index 66 meets Everton defense index 49 — one of the biggest mismatches of the week.
- The model makes this 54% vs 21% — a clear favorite on the numbers.
Head to head · 18 league meetings since 2015/16
BOU 92 drawn7 EVE
2025/26EVE1–2BOU2026-02-10
2025/26BOU0–1EVE2025-12-02
2024/25BOU1–0EVE2025-01-04
2024/25EVE2–3BOU2024-08-31
2023/24BOU2–1EVE2024-03-30
Bournemouth — projected scorers
Everton — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals82%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Over 3.5 goals36%
Both teams score59%
Double chance
BOU or draw79%
Draw or EVE46%
BOU or EVEno draw75%
Draw no bet
BOUstake returned on a draw72%
EVE28%
Clean sheets
BOU clean sheet32%
EVE clean sheet15%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| BOU↓ EVE→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are BOU goals, columns EVE. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price held steady since first assessment (2026-08-19) — reassessed after every played match, frozen at kickoff.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public at /model.