Serie A · engine xGB Current v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited

Venezia vs Lecce

Sunday 23 Aug, 16:30

Full time

0–2

chances 3.19 – 2.45 xG

✗ missed — we picked the draw; the LEC win we priced at 28%.

The claim — frozen pre-kickoff

35 · 37 · 28VEN · draw · LEC

0–0

Likeliest draw · 18%

VENEZIA 35%DRAW 37%LECCE 28%

Expected goals: VEN 1.02 · LEC 0.90

Goals

Over 1.5 goals56%

Over 2.5 goals31%

Over 3.5 goals14%

Both teams score42%

Double chance

VEN or draw72%

Draw or LEC65%

VEN or LECno draw63%

Draw no bet

VENstake returned on a draw56%

LEC44%

Clean sheets

VEN clean sheet41%

LEC clean sheet36%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell

VEN↓ LEC→	0	1	2	3	4	5
0
1
2
3
4
5

0–2 · 4.7%

A LEC win. 2 goals — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 5 in 100 plays. This is what happened.

What this is built from

The engine weighs

Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
Opponent strength and venue
Recent play, weighted toward now

It cannot see

Confirmed lineups
Injuries and suspensions
Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Venezia and Lecce — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 2 meetings since 2024/25

VEN 01 drawn1 LEC

2024/25Lecce1–1Venezia2025-04-06

2024/25Venezia0–1Lecce2024-11-25

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.