Serie A · engine xGB Current v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 5)

Venezia vs Lazio

Saturday 19 Sept, 18:45

Full time

0–2

chances 1.85 – 1.77 xG

✓ called — we picked LAZ; the LAZ win we priced at 57%.

The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 5 assessments

16 · 27 · 57VEN · draw · LAZ

0–1

Likeliest LAZ win · 13%

VENEZIA 16%DRAW 27%LAZIO 57%

Expected goals: VEN 0.86 · LAZ 1.72

Goals

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals47%

Over 3.5 goals27%

Both teams score50%

Double chance

VEN or draw43%

Draw or LAZ84%

VEN or LAZno draw73%

Draw no bet

VENstake returned on a draw22%

LAZ78%

Clean sheets

VEN clean sheet18%

LAZ clean sheet42%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell

VEN↓ LAZ→	0	1	2	3	4	5
0
1
2
3
4
5

0–2 · 10.8%

A LAZ win. 2 goals — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 11 in 100 plays. This is what happened.

What this is built from

The engine weighs

Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
Opponent strength and venue
Recent play, weighted toward now

It cannot see

Confirmed lineups
Injuries and suspensions
Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Venezia and Lazio — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 4 meetings since 2021/22

VEN 01 drawn3 LAZ

2024/25Venezia0–0Lazio2025-02-22

2024/25Lazio3–1Venezia2024-08-18

2021/22Lazio1–0Venezia2022-03-14

2021/22Venezia1–3Lazio2021-12-22

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.